Musharraf’s impeachment, Loc violations, Kabul Indian Embassy blasts – all connected together?

Posted on August 6, 2008. Filed under: India, Kashmir, Muslims, Pakistan, Politics, terrorism |

I hope what I fear is not going to come to pass. There are strong rumours of a move to impeach President Musharraf of Pakistan by the PPP led by Zardari, with support from Nawaz Sharif.  A few days back, there was a blast at the Indian Embassy in Kabul, killing a diplomat and a security person from India among other local fatalities. There were prompt speculations about the USA and Afghan authorities having proof of the involvement of the ISI in the blasts, and the Afghan President confirmed this suspicion of involvement of the ISI at the SAARC summit. And now, the Pakistani army across the LOC in Kashmir is increasingly resorting to “unprovoked firing” as reported by the Indian army, apparently aimed at disrupting maintenance of physical installations that prevent infiltrations by Kashmiri Islamic jihadists. Even the Hurriyat Conference leadership has the guts to declare in New Delhi that they would be forced to “renew economic exchange” across the LOC if economic blockade continues – if economic trade can be carried out at will across the LOC, maybe the Indian army and the government should sit up and think who really runs Kashmir, or is economic exchange an euphemism for return to militancy?

It is possible, that all these three phenomena are related. On the one hand this is a message from Musharraf and the elite of the Pakistani Army, that it is the Army which runs Pakistan, and not any elected government. The ISI and the army is beyond the elected governments control. Any attempt at removing the formal army representation in the regular formal Pakistani governmental process, will lead to increased destabilization attempts within India or on objects connected to India, forcing India to try and help or allow Musharraf to continue as a more effective person to negotiate with.

Actual overthrow of Musharraf may lead to a serious conflict or outrage within Pakistan that will apparently be unrelated to the Army or Musharraf. It can lead to escalation of border tension with India. The Army and the fundamentalist agents in the Paksitani Army will now be going all out to finish off the half-hearted attempts at democracy within Pakistan. For Jihadi Islamists, democracy of the  western type is  “haram”,  Islamic theocratic dictatorship  is  “Pak” and “Jayej”. They will collaborate  with Musharraf from behind, as Pakistani army is simply a tool in their eyes to their eventual conquest and imposition of their dictatorship on the subcontinent.

Musharraf’s impeachment or attempted impeachment may herald  violent conflict one way or the other  in the subcontinent.

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