Trust Vote 5 – the old order changeth, yielding place to new

Posted on July 22, 2008. Filed under: Communist, India, Nuclear, Politics |

Why do I write this? If Congress wins, isn’t it so that the “old order remains”! If Congress fails today, BJP+Mayavati+Left wins, and all of them are now also part of the old “order”. The BJP now perhaps realizes that the initiative may very well be passing into the hands of Mayavati+Karat’s hands, and postponement of a strategic deal with the West may not only be a reality but in fact it could actually lead to a complete reversal of policy at the hands of BSP+Left.

From a strategic viewpoint, nuclear weapons capability is practically of little use, as a weapon of war to be used in conflicts with neighboring countries. For the long foreseeable future, there are only two nuclear threats for India – China and Pakistan. Both countries share border with India, and any use of nuclear weapons will affect both the user as well as the intended target. China of course has greater flexibility in that it can (foolishly) think of sacrificing Tibet (as contaminated territory) , but Pakistan’s choices are severely limited. The entire subcontinent shares an intimate geo-ecological connection, and to a lesser extent with China. Any military confrontation that India may have to face and participate in for strategic reasons will be fought in the conventional way, will be swift and decisive. Such conflicts will only follow extreme and deliberate provocation, (perhaps even a provocation engineered strategically by the “provoked”) and economic or climatological collapse.

Thus from a practical sense, nitpicking over weapons capabilities are useless. More important consequence of the Nuclear Deal will be the acceptance of India as a responsible, and more importantly as a country strong and confident enough to graciously stoop down a bit in compromise. Territorial and other expansions in the subcontinent will more likely take place through peaceful economic measures and voluntary accretions rather than conquest.

Without invoking Hegel’s “hidden hand of history”, I feel that the overall trend of socio-economic development of forces on the Indian subcontinent given the background processes going on around in the countries surrounding it, is an inexorable movement towards modernization and resurgence towards its natural potential as an extremely productive and innovative society.

The two successful “communist nations” Russia and China were innovative and resourceful societies from way before Marx was born, and their spectacular technological and scientific progress was simply the result of an intensive capital accumulation process under state control utilizing the inherent pre-communist potentials. Communist parties long in state power concentrate “apparatchiks” who are singularly conservative, jealous, and without vision and serve rather as brakes on the economy. In Russia refusal to recognize this fact to the very bitter end led to the dismemberment of the CPSU, and the Chinese saved themselves temporarily by resorting to their legendary strategic flexibility. The Indian communists have been spectacularly resistant to forward looking vision – they vehemently opposed IT and automation, they opposed FDI for industrialization, the “Tata-Birla” epithet was for them synonymous with vile and hated untouchable enemies – and they also have proved remarkably consistent in doing a volte-face on these “non-negotiable, correct Marxist positions” roughly in about 20-25 years down the line.

Mayavati+Left+others may become “king makers” staking claim for kingship. But it will not be a long run. Socio-economic reality will push India towards a greater convergence with the Western world.

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[…] Trust Vote 5 – the old order changeth, yielding place to newFor the long foreseeable future, there are only two nuclear threats for India – China and Pakistan. Both countries share border with India, and any use of nuclear weapons will affect both the user as well as the intended target. … […]


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